Turkey’s Currency Crisis Series: Part two (of two) – What next for the Turkish lira?

Previous EM currency sell-offs of similar magnitudes often yielded high currency returns in subsequent years. Based on valuations, historical data from previous sell-off episodes and the economic rebalancing that is taking place; current exchange rate levels suggest attractive return expectations for long-term TRY (Turkish lira) currency investments. Elevated rates of inflation and the external debt …read more

Sky-high equity valuations here to stay?

• Have we witnessed the formation of a US equity bubble on the verge of bursting? Or can current valuations be justified by a shift in macro fundamentals?
• We model an S&P 500 fair value range and attribute medium-term price changes to their fundamental drivers. We find that the nine-year bull run can be largely explained by rising dividends and falling real yields. Elevated valuations are consistent with compressed discount rates and, without a significant repricing of real yields, they could be here to stay.