A black swan. A doomsday scenario. COVID-19. They are synonymous. A global recession is now inevitable and economic damage control remains key in a global pandemic that has decimated business-as-usual. As of this morning, White House officials have emerged from negotiations confident they will reach a deal by the end of the day on a …read more
If the self-imposed constraints of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme are respected, we estimate that the ECB will run out of eligible German Bunds (and German state and agency debt) to buy by mid to late 2018. We see this as the perfect excuse the ECB has for an early tapering of QE, as the Eurozone recovery consolidates.