The debt-to-GDP ratio does not represent the full scope of government liabilities, potentially calling for alternative measures of a government’s default risk. Monetary policy constraints and demographic pressures are likely to call for increases in fiscal spending, further straining governments’ balance sheets The sustainability of a government’s balance sheet is likely to depend on the origin …read more
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a political reaction to the constraints and costs of private financing for public spending. It is the explicit position that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated in order to avoid these constraints and costs. History is relevant. The future is untold. Money is currency is money. I hope …read more
The Canadian economy has been growing at a moderate pace however household debt has reached historical highs, raising the question of its sustainability and risks to the economy There is clear consensus among market participants and Canadian investment professionals regarding the outcome of the election The 2016 US elections and Brexit vote have resulted in …read more
2018 has been an eventful year, with an ongoing trade war, tightening monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing pressure in the Brexit negotiations, and a new Italian government which has resurrected fears about the stability of the Eurozone Despite this, G10 FX volatility has remained remarkably subdued In this blog post, we construct an econometric model to …read more
The Venezuelan government recently announced a de facto 95% devaluation of the bolivar and in the process pegged it to the value of the government’s newly issued crypto-come-oil-currency This will be an interesting development to follow. Not least because it is the first time a government or central bank has pegged to a cryptocurrency (the …read more
• The Turkish lira was one of the more volatile currencies in 2017.
• High inflation, a central bank apparently hobbled by political resistance to higher rates and persistent political jitters were key factors which made the currency vulnerable.
• In this post we take a closer look at the balance of payments to ascertain whether risks have increased over the last year.
• As NAFTA negotiations become increasingly fraught, the risk of a complete termination by US President Donald Trump is increasing
• The long-run impact of such a termination is likely to be limited, based on the MFN tariffs the US could apply
• The most likely impact would be in terms of the real economy, as the shock generated would hit consumption, spook investment and delay the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle.
• To investigate the magnitude of this effect, we model the impact on real economic variables and interpret the impact on the Canadian dollar. Our results suggest that a 6% depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar could be justified.
On 6th April, the Czech National Bank (CNB) announced an end to their currency floor
The market reaction was muted by comparison to that in the response to the collapse of the EURCHF floor in 2015
We analyse the differences in economic fundamentals and central bank policy which allowed this much smoother exit from a currency floor.
• On 22nd February, Finance minister Gordhan presented his annual budget to the national assembly.
• Gordhan faced a painful trade-off between managing South Africa’s eye-watering debt situation, supporting stagnant private consumption and political sustainability in the most unequal country in the world
• We simulate South Africa’s debt/GDP path under different assumptions, and argue that the economy still has a long way to go to achieve fiscal sustainability
Following the attempted coup in Turkey on 15th July, we examine afresh the pressure points in the Turkish economy, and note three themes investors will be watching with interest.