Posts

FX as a source of return: Is now the time to look again?

  The global trend towards lower interest rates, exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, has led to an environment of suppressed yields and asymmetric risk such that traditional investments no longer offer the most efficient avenue to express macro views. Currency markets can act as the last great equilibrator when it comes to levelling-up asset valuations, …read more

Could the pandemic cement an era of financial repression?

Financial repression is a tried and tested tool for the management of extreme debt loads Debt levels are rising to such extremes as governments respond to the COVID-19 pandemic Expectations of high post-pandemic growth may be overly optimistic and austere policy looks untenable We may therefore venture further down the garden path into financial repression …read more

Government liabilities: the full picture

The debt-to-GDP ratio does not represent the full scope of government liabilities, potentially calling for alternative measures of a government’s default risk. Monetary policy constraints and demographic pressures are likely to call for increases in fiscal spending, further straining governments’ balance sheets The sustainability of a government’s balance sheet is likely to depend on the origin …read more