The Swedish krona had a tough start to the year having depreciated over 5% against a basket of G4 currencies. This blog post outlines the outlook for the krona with an emphasis on its valuation versus G10 currencies, macroeconomic performance, external balances and the Riksbank’s policy trajectory. Potential upside and downside risks are inspected in …read more
The importance of responsible investing has been growing rapidly, but currency’s unique role has so far gone largely unnoticed. As Record announces that it is seeding an innovative ESG currency strategy, we ask: how exactly does currency fit into the existing ESG investment landscape? We argue that ESG currency investing can be used to incentivise …read more
2018 has been an eventful year, with an ongoing trade war, tightening monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing pressure in the Brexit negotiations, and a new Italian government which has resurrected fears about the stability of the Eurozone Despite this, G10 FX volatility has remained remarkably subdued In this blog post, we construct an econometric model to …read more
Previous EM currency sell-offs of similar magnitudes often yielded high currency returns in subsequent years. Based on valuations, historical data from previous sell-off episodes and the economic rebalancing that is taking place; current exchange rate levels suggest attractive return expectations for long-term TRY (Turkish lira) currency investments. Elevated rates of inflation and the external debt …read more
The Turkish lira came to the forefront of investor attention in August 2018, having at one stage depreciated more than 40% in spot terms against a basket of G4 currencies. This is the largest depreciation seen in our Record EM Currency universe since the sell-off of the Russian rouble in 2014 during the Crimea Crisis. …read more
The case for investing in emerging market currencies remains strong, despite the recent volatility. A combination of rising US rates, concerns about the stability of the global trading system and local political turmoil have generated headwinds for EM currencies. However, the recent sell-off has considerably boosted return expectations given the current level of undervaluation in …read more
• After nearly a decade in decline, the growth gap between emerging markets and developed markets is rising once more, but where is each group in its respective economic cycle?
• Although both groups were synchronised before the crisis, their respective economic cycles have since diverged. G4 economies appear to be well into their cycle, but EMs could be at the beginnings of a new cycle – a positive signal for EM currency investors.
• The Turkish lira was one of the more volatile currencies in 2017.
• High inflation, a central bank apparently hobbled by political resistance to higher rates and persistent political jitters were key factors which made the currency vulnerable.
• In this post we take a closer look at the balance of payments to ascertain whether risks have increased over the last year.
• As NAFTA negotiations become increasingly fraught, the risk of a complete termination by US President Donald Trump is increasing
• The long-run impact of such a termination is likely to be limited, based on the MFN tariffs the US could apply
• The most likely impact would be in terms of the real economy, as the shock generated would hit consumption, spook investment and delay the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle.
• To investigate the magnitude of this effect, we model the impact on real economic variables and interpret the impact on the Canadian dollar. Our results suggest that a 6% depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar could be justified.
• The euro has been very strong this year (appreciating over 10% YtD against the dollar)
• Fair value (measured using PPP) is 1.33, suggesting the EURUSD pair is still around 15% undervalued
• In this blog post we use a FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) framework to investigate what level exchange rate is consistent with a sustainable balance of payments. Our results are broadly consistent with PPP valuations, and suggest that there is a risk of further euro appreciation to come