• After nearly a decade in decline, the growth gap between emerging markets and developed markets is rising once more, but where is each group in its respective economic cycle?
• Although both groups were synchronised before the crisis, their respective economic cycles have since diverged. G4 economies appear to be well into their cycle, but EMs could be at the beginnings of a new cycle – a positive signal for EM currency investors.
• The Turkish lira was one of the more volatile currencies in 2017.
• High inflation, a central bank apparently hobbled by political resistance to higher rates and persistent political jitters were key factors which made the currency vulnerable.
• In this post we take a closer look at the balance of payments to ascertain whether risks have increased over the last year.
• As NAFTA negotiations become increasingly fraught, the risk of a complete termination by US President Donald Trump is increasing
• The long-run impact of such a termination is likely to be limited, based on the MFN tariffs the US could apply
• The most likely impact would be in terms of the real economy, as the shock generated would hit consumption, spook investment and delay the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle.
• To investigate the magnitude of this effect, we model the impact on real economic variables and interpret the impact on the Canadian dollar. Our results suggest that a 6% depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar could be justified.
• The euro has been very strong this year (appreciating over 10% YtD against the dollar)
• Fair value (measured using PPP) is 1.33, suggesting the EURUSD pair is still around 15% undervalued
• In this blog post we use a FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) framework to investigate what level exchange rate is consistent with a sustainable balance of payments. Our results are broadly consistent with PPP valuations, and suggest that there is a risk of further euro appreciation to come
On 6th April, the Czech National Bank (CNB) announced an end to their currency floor
The market reaction was muted by comparison to that in the response to the collapse of the EURCHF floor in 2015
We analyse the differences in economic fundamentals and central bank policy which allowed this much smoother exit from a currency floor.
• Strategies for earning sustainable return in currency are more nuanced than in equities or bonds due to the absence of a “long-only” beta
• We argue that there are, however, strategies to target sustainable returns in the currency space
• This blog post describes growth, carry, momentum and value as potential sources of return in currency
• 11th January saw data on Turkey’s November current account released
• The drop off in the trade balance can be largely explained by FX effects and continued decline in Tourism revenues
• A careful analysis suggests that in the detail might be some much-needed good news for Turkey
In April we noted the uncertainty that a Brexit vote would bring to the British economy.
In this post, we examine how the economic risk the UK now faces may be manifested in a post-Brexit UK. In particular, we look at a “worst case scenario”, and what this might mean for the economy, and the currency.
Following the attempted coup in Turkey on 15th July, we examine afresh the pressure points in the Turkish economy, and note three themes investors will be watching with interest.
The currency war “truce” at the G20 meeting in February of this year has effectively placed political pressure on Japan to refrain from further depreciation of the yen. We investigate whether this has frozen USDJPY at its “fair value”. Although a naïve reading of PPP figures suggests that the outcome is reasonable, adjustment for productivity differentials suggests that the yen is now heavily overvalued versus the dollar, with attendant negative consequences for the Japanese economy.
Powered by The Communications Group 