Posts

Could sustainable finance be key to unlocking world reserve currency status for the euro?

Authored by Montana Craven, ESG Intern Introduction The euro is yet to convince the world that it could be a viable alternative to the US dollar as a reserve currency, falling over the hurdles of fiscal unity, growth outperformance and political stability. However, sustainable finance currently offers an alternative avenue for the fission of euro-denominated …read more

Emerging Markets FX: The Framework of Opportunity

  By Torrie Callander, CFA & Canberk Yalcin   Emerging Market (EM) currencies have already regained much of the ground lost in H1 2020. We therefore expect a more heterogeneous set of factors to drive opportunity in 2021, as opposed to any homogenous, broad-based EM recovery. Traditional factors such as carry, value and growth should …read more

FX as a source of return: Is now the time to look again?

  The global trend towards lower interest rates, exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, has led to an environment of suppressed yields and asymmetric risk such that traditional investments no longer offer the most efficient avenue to express macro views. Currency markets can act as the last great equilibrator when it comes to levelling-up asset valuations, …read more

Modern Monetary Theory: it’s a currency question

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a political reaction to the constraints and costs of private financing for public spending. It is the explicit position that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated in order to avoid these constraints and costs. History is relevant. The future is untold. Money is currency is money. I hope …read more

ESG and Currency

Co-authored with Aaron Cantrell. This article first appeared on Responsible-Investor.com The advancement of ESG data access and analysis gives investors the chance to expand the scope of their sustainability objectives and investment programs, including in new asset classes. Record Currency Management has been building the research and investment infrastructure for ESG integration in currency. The …read more

Swedish Krona Outlook

The Swedish krona had a tough start to the year having depreciated over 5% against a basket of G4 currencies. This blog post outlines the outlook for the krona with an emphasis on its valuation versus G10 currencies, macroeconomic performance, external balances and the Riksbank’s policy trajectory. Potential upside and downside risks are inspected in …read more

Why is FX volatility low? An econometric model

2018 has been an eventful year, with an ongoing trade war, tightening monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing pressure in the Brexit negotiations, and a new Italian government which has resurrected fears about the stability of the Eurozone Despite this, G10 FX volatility has remained remarkably subdued In this blog post, we construct an econometric model to …read more