FX turnover data, published by the central banks of six main FX jurisdictions, provides useful information on the size and the structure of FX activity. The size of the FX market increased by 11% compared to the previous year. NDFs (non-deliverable forwards) appeared to gain in popularity amongst FX market participants. The US dollar continues …read more
• As NAFTA negotiations become increasingly fraught, the risk of a complete termination by US President Donald Trump is increasing
• The long-run impact of such a termination is likely to be limited, based on the MFN tariffs the US could apply
• The most likely impact would be in terms of the real economy, as the shock generated would hit consumption, spook investment and delay the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle.
• To investigate the magnitude of this effect, we model the impact on real economic variables and interpret the impact on the Canadian dollar. Our results suggest that a 6% depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar could be justified.