The importance of responsible investing has been growing rapidly, but currency’s unique role has so far gone largely unnoticed. As Record announces that it is seeding an innovative ESG currency strategy, we ask: how exactly does currency fit into the existing ESG investment landscape? We argue that ESG currency investing can be used to incentivise …read more
About Jeremy Chalder, CFA
Jeremy is an Associate Director in the Economic Research team at Record. He previously worked as a Macro Strategist at UBS Investment Bank, after graduating from London Business School. Prior to LBS, Jeremy held positions in FX trading, fixed income portfolio management, private equity and leveraged finance. He holds a Masters in Finance (MiF), a First Class BA in International Business, and is a CFA charterholder. Outside of work, Jeremy enjoys football, wakeboarding and firstname.lastname@example.org
Entries by Jeremy Chalder, CFA
• Have we witnessed the formation of a US equity bubble on the verge of bursting? Or can current valuations be justified by a shift in macro fundamentals?
• We model an S&P 500 fair value range and attribute medium-term price changes to their fundamental drivers. We find that the nine-year bull run can be largely explained by rising dividends and falling real yields. Elevated valuations are consistent with compressed discount rates and, without a significant repricing of real yields, they could be here to stay.
• After nearly a decade in decline, the growth gap between emerging markets and developed markets is rising once more, but where is each group in its respective economic cycle?
• Although both groups were synchronised before the crisis, their respective economic cycles have since diverged. G4 economies appear to be well into their cycle, but EMs could be at the beginnings of a new cycle – a positive signal for EM currency investors.
Does the collapse in the participation rate represent slack, or just demographics? How many can be brought back in to the labour force? We present a detailed dissection of the American population ‘not in employment’, and the reality of getting them back to work.