Recent trends in the RMB

This year the RMB has bucked its recent trend and remained broadly stable against the US dollar for the first half of 2016. As the US dollar retraces, the RMB has softened against its main trade partners.

For Policymakers, this is a convenient outcome, though there exists a delicate balance to maintain and the recent change to the PBoC’s fixing mechanism looks to be a reflection of this.

When does the ECB run out of bonds to buy?

If the self-imposed constraints of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme are respected, we estimate that the ECB will run out of eligible German Bunds (and German state and agency debt) to buy by mid to late 2018. We see this as the perfect excuse the ECB has for an early tapering of QE, as the Eurozone recovery consolidates.