This year the RMB has bucked its recent trend and remained broadly stable against the US dollar for the first half of 2016. As the US dollar retraces, the RMB has softened against its main trade partners.
For Policymakers, this is a convenient outcome, though there exists a delicate balance to maintain and the recent change to the PBoC’s fixing mechanism looks to be a reflection of this.
Does the collapse in the participation rate represent slack, or just demographics? How many can be brought back in to the labour force? We present a detailed dissection of the American population ‘not in employment’, and the reality of getting them back to work.
The UK’s general election on 8th June resulted in a surprise hung parliament. In this blog post, we explore the implications of this for the UK government and the Brexit negotiations.
If the self-imposed constraints of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme are respected, we estimate that the ECB will run out of eligible German Bunds (and German state and agency debt) to buy by mid to late 2018. We see this as the perfect excuse the ECB has for an early tapering of QE, as the Eurozone recovery consolidates.
On 6th April, the Czech National Bank (CNB) announced an end to their currency floor
The market reaction was muted by comparison to that in the response to the collapse of the EURCHF floor in 2015
We analyse the differences in economic fundamentals and central bank policy which allowed this much smoother exit from a currency floor.