Previous EM currency sell-offs of similar magnitudes often yielded high currency returns in subsequent years. Based on valuations, historical data from previous sell-off episodes and the economic rebalancing that is taking place; current exchange rate levels suggest attractive return expectations for long-term TRY (Turkish lira) currency investments. Elevated rates of inflation and the external debt …read more
The Turkish lira came to the forefront of investor attention in August 2018, having at one stage depreciated more than 40% in spot terms against a basket of G4 currencies. This is the largest depreciation seen in our Record EM Currency universe since the sell-off of the Russian rouble in 2014 during the Crimea Crisis. …read more
The case for investing in emerging market currencies remains strong, despite the recent volatility. A combination of rising US rates, concerns about the stability of the global trading system and local political turmoil have generated headwinds for EM currencies. However, the recent sell-off has considerably boosted return expectations given the current level of undervaluation in …read more
The Venezuelan government recently announced a de facto 95% devaluation of the bolivar and in the process pegged it to the value of the government’s newly issued crypto-come-oil-currency This will be an interesting development to follow. Not least because it is the first time a government or central bank has pegged to a cryptocurrency (the …read more
• Have we witnessed the formation of a US equity bubble on the verge of bursting? Or can current valuations be justified by a shift in macro fundamentals?
• We model an S&P 500 fair value range and attribute medium-term price changes to their fundamental drivers. We find that the nine-year bull run can be largely explained by rising dividends and falling real yields. Elevated valuations are consistent with compressed discount rates and, without a significant repricing of real yields, they could be here to stay.