Swiss Interest Rates: Lower for Longer ?

• Has the SNB reached the Zero Lower Bound? After last week’s ECB deposit rate cut, we assess the likelihood of further accommodative monetary policy in Switzerland.
• By applying a Taylor Rule approach to reveal the SNB’s own estimate of the neutral real interest rate, we estimate that there is indeed room for further interest rate cuts, especially as domestic Swiss real interest rates are still moderately elevated.

SNB vs CNB : Currency Interventions

•The economic rationale for entering, and ultimately exiting a regime of exchange rate interventions is markedly different for the Czech National Bank relative to the Swiss National Bank.

•The central bank balance sheet, politics and nature of the underlying economy (and currency) are, amongst other things, important factors in helping determine the likelihood of a central bank continuing to intervene in the FX market.