The US dollar is at an inflection point. Can the dollar’s cycle continue in the face of convergent economic fundamentals and central bank coordination?
Following the attempted coup in Turkey on 15th July, we examine afresh the pressure points in the Turkish economy, and note three themes investors will be watching with interest.
Are currency markets stuck in a period of short-term mean reversion? If so, what’s driving this and what are the implications for investors?
Carry exists across all asset classes as compensation paid to speculators for assuming market risk.
We argue that, as in equities, bonds, and currency, the carry trade in commodities represents a persistent source of beta-like returns.
The currency war “truce” at the G20 meeting in February of this year has effectively placed political pressure on Japan to refrain from further depreciation of the yen. We investigate whether this has frozen USDJPY at its “fair value”. Although a naïve reading of PPP figures suggests that the outcome is reasonable, adjustment for productivity differentials suggests that the yen is now heavily overvalued versus the dollar, with attendant negative consequences for the Japanese economy.