If the self-imposed constraints of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme are respected, we estimate that the ECB will run out of eligible German Bunds (and German state and agency debt) to buy by mid to late 2018. We see this as the perfect excuse the ECB has for an early tapering of QE, as the Eurozone recovery consolidates.
About Javier Corominas
Javier Corominas is the Head of Economic Research and FX Strategy at Record. Before joining Record, Javier worked as Eurozone Economist at a leading macroeconomic forecasting consultancy and holds both a BA (First Class) and MPhil degree in Economics from Cambridge University. When not musing on the economic and market predicament of countries and currencies, Javier likes to spend his time on the golf course, the squash court and trying to control the kite while still standing on his firstname.lastname@example.org
Entries by Javier Corominas
We assess the implications of the removal of the CZK to EUR peg on April 6 2017 and what this means for how central banks manage peg removals going forward.
How to rank the relative attractiveness of Emerging Market currencies? In this blog post we bring together various metrics that should help investors decide on the perennial question, whether or not to hedge Emerging Market currency risk.
Sterling’s deprecation since June this year has been dramatic and many commentators have welcomed this as a way to rebalance the economy via an improving trade balance. However, this may not be the first and foremost mechanism presently at work : instead, we argue that the income balance is perhaps more important and the key adjustment mechanism in a world where trade responsiveness to currency changes is less than in the past.
Do market capitalisation driven weights make sense from a currency perspective? If not, how can we go about getting closer to a more balanced and optimal currency mix as part of international asset allocation?
Are currency markets stuck in a period of short-term mean reversion? If so, what’s driving this and what are the implications for investors?
Did safe haven flows drive an ever appreciating Swiss Franc in the run up to January 2015?
The data reveal that, on the contrary, a general lack of Swiss outflows and repatriation of foreign bonds bought by Swiss domestic investors, can explain much of the pressure on the Franc to appreciate.
Ultimately domestic investors created an insurmountable problem for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the run up to the removal of the peg.
Growth outperformance matters in EM over the long run, but capital flows drive short run returns in the asset class. We believe there are complementarities between both.
• Does the recent weakness and volatility in the CNH spot and short-tenor forward market herald a new era of Chinese capital outflows?
• Has the SNB reached the Zero Lower Bound? After last week’s ECB deposit rate cut, we assess the likelihood of further accommodative monetary policy in Switzerland.
• By applying a Taylor Rule approach to reveal the SNB’s own estimate of the neutral real interest rate, we estimate that there is indeed room for further interest rate cuts, especially as domestic Swiss real interest rates are still moderately elevated.